Reapportionment May Delay Agendas

 

As the General Assembly’s leaders continue their work crafting 203 new State House and 50 new State Senate seats for the 2012 elections, there is a feeling emerging amongst insiders that the mapmaking exercise may have a strong impact on what – if anything – gets done in the next few months.

The Legislative Reapportionment Commission consists of the four caucus leaders and Judge Stephen McEwen, Jr.  And before we go further, it should be noted that this version of reapportionment has thus far been the most transparent in memory.  The Commission maintains a web site that allows Pennsylvanians to look at old and proposed maps, and make online comments and suggestions. 

The process itself is well underway already, beginning with the certification of the census data.  At that point, commission members began looking at the population shifts, and then how the seats were drawn a decade ago.  The certification of data starts a 90-day clock ticking to produce a preliminary plan, after which public comments will be taken, and a final plan presented for consideration and ultimately, enactment.

Many of those seats now have thousands more bodies in them than they did in 2001; many have thousands fewer.  When all is said and done, expect western Pennsylvania to lose a few seats, as population continues to shift eastward.  Northeast Pennsylvania is seeing increased population as more and more people from New York and New Jersey move in, while southcentral PA and the Philadelphia suburbs also continue to grow. 

So if the process is run essentially by five people, one of whom is not even a member of the General Assembly, and there isn’t even a final House and Senate vote necessary to enact the new map, why would reapportionment have an impact on the fall agenda?

Think about what happens when you squeeze a water balloon.  It is not unlike what happens to House and Senate seats when you remove or add population.  It is coming from someone else’s seat, or moving into it.  Lawmakers are very, very protective of their seats, and great agita is created by the entire process.  Safe GOP seats become a little less safe; same on the Democratic side. 

And it is not just the partisan makeup of seats that concerns lawmakers.  In many instances, House and Senate members have spent a decade cultivating relationships with constituents, local officials, fire chiefs and school board members in a township or borough, only to see them snatched away and relocated to his or her neighboring member. 

So while the four caucus leaders spend the next few months drawing, redrawing and redrawing again, they are bound to anger some of their members.  It is inevitable.  It is impossible to draw a fair map that makes every member happy.

Now, factor in the legislative work that is scheduled for the fall: school choice, liquor privatization, transportation funding, Marcellus Shale taxes, and Unemployment Compensation solvency, just to name a few.  Not one of these issues is tailor-made for an easy 102 in the House and 26 in the Senate.  There will be competing agendas, policy disagreements, and very tough votes to be made.  Oh, and then there are the votes on the maps for Congressional reapportionment, which, like legislative reapportionment is a MUST do, not a WANT to do.

So when legislative leaders walk into their respective caucus rooms and ask for “yes” or “no” votes on any of the above hot-button topics, it is likely that they will be standing in a room where several elected members are very angry about how their seats are being drawn.  Many might be in a – shall we say – less than cooperative mood.

The behind-the-scenes horse-trading that always happens in the General Assembly on tough issues is only made more complex when you add the heat of legislative reapportionment into the mix.  Therefore, do not be surprised if the rather ambitious fall legislative schedule suddenly becomes much, much smaller.  For legislative leaders, getting an ambitious agenda accomplished while redrawing 253 seats will seem like (to quote Apollo 13) "trying to drive a toaster through a car wash.”

Getting the legislative and Congressional maps drawn and put to bed, along with passage of one or two big ticket items by the time the fall Session wraps up, might end up being enough of an accomplishment.    

Comments

[Admin]

We thank you!

[Tompyne]

Well-stated. Especially the Apollo 13 reference!